The Identification Method and Analysis of Ground Bus Travel Demand Characteristics Based on Massive Data

摘要

In the urban public transport system, the ground bus is always playing an important role in residents' traveling due to its high accessibility. During the past two years, the attraction of the ground bus has declined because of mismatch between supply and demand. For ground bus, understanding the characteristics of space distribution and evolution of public transit demand will contribute to the optimization of public transport capacity scheduling, as well as the adjustment of network, thus improving the quality and attractiveness of ground bus services. This work uses bus GPS positioning data, IC card data, and AFC card data, based on four time dimensions: 2015 January, June, December, and 2016 June, to analyze the characteristics of regional public transport demand evolution. All data were offered by Transportation Operations Coordination Center. The study uses the daily average boarding and alighting volume of the bus stations, the daily average passenger volume of bus lines, and regional daily average occurrence volume at morning peak to present the demand of ground bus at different levels. Identification methods were established to recognize special region which is under strong demand fluctuation, combined with the case analysis of typical region to explore the cause of the fluctuation. The work provides data support on decision making for the ground public transportation system in order to enhance residents' attraction and balance demand and supply.