Study on the Transportation Development Strategy in Economic Zone Based on System Dynamics

摘要

Economic zone is a large opening and complicated system. However, traditional study on the transportation development strategy cannot predict exactly the effect of the strategy. System Dynamics, as a laboratory of strategy and policy, can be used to check the application results of different strategies. This paper analyses the cause-and-effect relationships among economic level, transportation supply and transportation demand in economic zone. Based on the system flow graph and structural equations, the therein parameters and variables are determined. Then the system dynamics model of transportation in economic zone is built. Taking the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic zone as an example, the practicability and validity of the model are tested by simulation analysis. Finally, the scientificness and reliability of the transportation development strategy in economic zone are improved according to the different strategies tests by the system dynamics model.