An Analytical Model of RD Valuation Considering Technological and Market Risk - (PPT)

摘要

Considering both of two risks. Technological: Probability of R&D success p. Market: the volatility of the market value of the project σ. Decision Making through two stages (t1, t2). An Econometric Model developed in this research: Forecasting the Probability of R&D success p. The forecasted probability comes from outside of the option valuation model. Making the whole framework simpler than other research (Ottoo, 1998).