THE PAPER AND PACKAGING INDUSTRY INTO A NEW ERA OF PRODUCTS: INSIGHTS FROM A DELPHI STUDY

摘要

The purpose of the paper is to present experiences using a forecasting tool, the Delphi method, to explore the dynamics between traditional industries and emerging new industries and potential discontinuities and to analyse the future business environment of printed functionality. The Delphi technique uses expert feedback to refine an informed perspective on complex and uncertain issues. The primary source of information for the printed functionality and hybrid media industries evolution were collected in expert interviews and two round Delphi study in the end of year 2006. The Delphi method was chosen because of its advantage to capture multiple experts in a panel that gathers views from experts about a certain theme. The knowledge of chosen industry experts consists both deep vertical knowledge and wide horizontal knowledge including representatives of the following groups: experts in printed functionality (specialist), industry experts from universities and research institutes (generalist), and business managers and executives (industry). The paper provides insights how industry convergence and technological trajectories affect to the evolution of industries. Our analysis focuses especially on examining discrepancies and strives for expanded knowledge base rather than consensus. Printed functionality represents one promising opportunity for paper companies to find new uses for fibre-based materials and a possibility to lead the industry into a new era of products. Printed functionality can be characterised as an internally driven competence-enhancing innovation for traditional paper companies, which can change the dominant design in the existing industry. Printed functionality is an emerging technology area and prior research in this area is limited, as is work using Delphi method. The anticipatory character of Delphi studies can, through a sharing knowledge and experience, augment understanding within the expert group. Finland has a good chance to gain a significant role globally in printed functionality development, especially in areas related to current forest industry.