A Study on Concept of Water Resource Carrying Capacity under Climate Change and its Computing Methods

摘要

Water is the source of life,a key factor of production and ecological base.China' s basic water conditions can be described as uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources as well as its large population with little water.Currently,climate change is regarded as one of the most important global environmental problems at home and abroad,and future climate change may further exacerbate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in China.Research on water resources carrying capacity beasts of an extensive literature at home and abroad.Its definitions can be summarized as the following two viewpoints: one is the water resources development capacity or water resources development scale;another is water resources supporting sustainable development capacity.In practical applications,the calculation of water carrying capacity is generally based on the volume of available water resources with different guarantee rate in the future planning year,which is computed in accordance with historical precipitation data using the probability and statistic method,thus not objectively showing the volume of available water resources in the future years.The calculation of water resources dynamic carrying capacity is different from that of the traditional water resources carrying capacity,which is based on the volume of available water resources with different guarantee rate in the future planning year.And its volume is calculated in combination with historical rainfall and runoff data through probability statistic method,therefore,it is not a true reflection of water resources utilization in the coming years.The premise of calculation of water resources dynamic carrying capacity is to obtain the volume of available water resources in the coming years with the help of the climate model and hydrology model.Therefore,water dynamic carrying capacity can be summarized as the maximization of the social and economic development water resources system in some basin or region under the climate change,when maintaining the virtuous circle of ecological system,can achieve in the foreseeable period of time.This paper,reviewing and summarizing the study water resources carrying capacity,systematically expounds on the concept and connotation of water resources dynamic carrying capacity under the climate change,puts forward its calculation frame and main technical method,and analyses its advantages and application range,with an aim to provide the reference for its further research.