Synthetical Research for Sustainable Development in Economic Circle of Beibu Gulf based on System Dynamics Model

摘要

This paper applies a system dynamics model for the ecological carrying capacity of urban agglomeration in Beibu Gulf of Guangxi. The model consists of three main sub-systems including population, economy and resource, respectively. Three indexes are simulated under the collected data from the year 2003 to the year 2010 to make a prediction between the year 2011 to the year 2023 and the findings are undertaken to verify the model concerning the main indexes through horizontal comparison with the historical data and sensitivity check. This model is aim to test the further development according to the current situation in Beibu Gulf and make comparative analysis among three different schemes to give a suggestion to encourage a good circulation development model and ensure the regional area under a healthy and sustainable development. The modeling results are directly useful to compare different dynamic consequences brought by various policies and decisions, and are thus of great significance to achieve the goal of sustainable development.