Discussion C4: Shorelines: measuring change

摘要

The most straightforward explanation is that the original hindtast was either too short or not representative of the more recently occurring conditions, representing natural fluctuations in climate variability. Evidence suggests that the initial hindcast is technically robust. It is apparent that the more recent period (1990-2009) has been stormier than the pre-design phase period (1974-1990). Re-calculation of conditions at the offshore boundary, based on the more recent hindcast, suggests that the conditions used for design are now considered to have a return period of about eight years, rather than the nominal 100 years.