Use of Casual Loop Diagrams and Systems Analysis to Explore Alternative Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Seyhan River Basin, Turkey

摘要

Within a UN Joint Programme titled "Enhancing the Capacity of Turkey to Adapt to Climate Change" a systems approach workshop was carried out in Adana, Turkey with broad stakeholder participation. The participants applied systems thinking approach, causal loop diagramming methodology and systems analysis to examine the potential impacts of projected climatic changes on natural ecosystems and socio-economical systems, as well as to explore the alternative adaptation strategies to cope with the potential negative outcomes of the climatic change in Seyhan River Basin. This paper synthesizes the outcomes of this workshop, identifies major climate change impacts and clarifies the priority adaptation measures for managing climate change vulnerability in the Seyhan River Basin. Availability and quality of water, and their implications for the region are considered to be the major priority area by the workshop participants. Results suggest that there is need for adaptive measures with an integrated water management perspective considering: 1. Availability and supply of ground/surface water to maintain natural ecosystems, the goods and services they provide, agricultural productivity and food security; 2. Efficient use of water for agricultural, residential and industrial purposes; 3. Drought and flood management; 4. Capacity building among the regional stakeholders in terms of climate change impacts and adaptation measures.