CALCULATING THE COST OF DISTRIBUTION GRID UPGRADES REQUIRED TO ACCOMMODATE CURRENT AND FUTURE LEVELS OF PV DEPLOYMENT ACROSS RURALITY CONTEXTS IN THE UK

摘要

In this study, we use a geographical information systems (GIS)-framework—the United Kingdom Photovoltaics Database (UKPVD) to analyze spatial PV deployment, domestic and nondomestic electricity demand, rurality (as a proxy of building and population density), at a resolution of around 600 households. We use this framework to identify four representative rurality contexts which account for ～95% of UK households. Using a Statistical Distribution Network Design and Investment model and making use of network asset data for the Southwest of England as a representative case, we calculate additional network upgrade costs due to load growth and increased PV penetration in representative networks in each of these contexts. We calculate additional costs for a range of PV deployment scenarios and sets of flexibility measures, including storage and demand side management. Trends in network upgrade costs and savings associated with storage and demand side management are broadly similar across rurality contexts, although there are quantitative differences. Up to 2030, network upgrade costs are chiefly associated with avoided investment in low voltage network infrastructure to mitigate voltage impacts of PV. Post-2030, as peak demand rises, upgrades to high voltage networks to accommodate higher power flow begin to dominate. The majority of unavoided network upgrade costs after flexibility measures are installed from the period from 2030 are associated with voltage regulation on the low voltage network to accommodate PV deployment, which modelled levels of storage and demand side management are unable to mitigate.