Analogue-dynamical prediction of numerical model errors based on principal component analysis

摘要

A new prediction error correction scheme based on 74 circulation characteristics data provided by Weather Diagnostic Forecasting Division of National Climate Center, which is designed to develop the Operational Numerical Forecast Model (ONFM) of the National Climate Center of China, and the skill level of the precipitation prediction for rainy season in the mid-lower reaches (MLR) of the Yangtze River by ONFM is obviously raised. The approach use principal component(PC) analysis to prediction error of ONFM. And we used different factors to correct the different PCs of the error of precipitation field. The comparative study results indicate that the effectiveness of the new analogue error correction (AEC) scheme is better than system error correction (SEC) scheme.