Chinese Demographic Risk Early-Warning Indicator System and Empirical Research

摘要

Constructing the demographic risk early-warning indicator system (DREWIS) is an important link of Monitoring demographic risk and optimizing the demographic policy. The article designs the basic framework of DREWIS on the basis of expert consultation method. Thus it puts forward the determination of the weights of indicators through the expert consultation and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and the cluster analytic method, makes dimensionless transformation through the maximum and minimum law, and constructs the demographic risk comprehensive evaluation models and risk rating standard. Based on this, the article comprehensively evaluates the risk situations of the Chinese demographic in recent 10 years.