RELIABILITY RESEARCH OF POWER-SUPPLY SYSTEM IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT BASED ON MARKOV THEORY AND BAYES NETWORK

摘要

As components in an actual nuclear system have multi states and are dependent on each other, a method for system reliability analyse based on Markov theory and Bayes network is presented in this paper. The method resolves the problems of multi-state and dependence simultaneously, by utilizing Markov theory and Bayes network synthetically. Applying the method to analysing reliability of power-supply system in nuclear power plant, the system failure probability, RAW and posterior probability of each component are obtained, which are useful for system reliability evaluation, improvement of weakness and fault diagnosis. Synchronously, the method is proved feasible and effective for solving system reliability that contains dependent and multi-state components.