Strategic Jet Engine System Design in Light of Uncertain Fuel and Carbon Prices

摘要

This paper presents a project that is investigating which cruise speed the next generation of short-haul aircraft with 150 seats should fly at and which combination of advanced engine technologies should be employed in order to make the profit generated by the aircraft robust to uncertain fuel and carbon prices in Europe in 2030. To answer this question, an optimization loop is being set up in MATLAB consisting of five modules, including an aircraft design, a travel demand, a modal shift, a flight profile, and an engine design element. The first three modules were tested in a preliminary study that analyzed the effect of high and low fuel and carbon prices on the optimum aircraft design and its ideal cruise speed. The results indicate that if oil and CO_2 prices were to rise significantly, a slower turboprop aircraft would be more profitable in terms of Surplus Value in comparison to a conventional turbofan design. If prices were to reduce, however, a faster turbofan aircraft would offer a superior business case. The study also showed that making realistic Surplus Value predictions is more difficult than forecasting costs.