Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030

摘要

Questions about the interaction of climate policy with fossil fuel marketsare rising in the scientific community. In this paper we assess possible interactionsbetween climate policies and the global steam coal market. Possiblemarket adjustments between demand centers through market effects are investigatewith a numerical model of the global steam coal market until 2030: the“COALMOD-World” model. The COALMOD-World model is an equilibriummodel that computes future trade flows, infrastructure investments and pricesuntil 2030. We investigate three specific designs of climate policy: a unilateralEuropean climate policy, an Indonesian export-limiting supply-side policy anda carbon capture and storage (CCS) fast-roll out policy in the broader contextof climate policy and market constraints. We find that market adjustmenteffects can have significant positive and negative impacts on the effectivenessof climate policies.