Feasibility of the hydrogen economy determined on battlefield for the car of the future The feasibility of the hydrogen economy is often viewed in terms of the early deployment of hydrogen vehicles, because the transportation sector plays a key role in solving problems of both energy security and climate change [1,2]. The promise of the hydrogen car has however faded by the arrival of an alternative that appears to offer far more hope for the immediate future. The hydrogen car hype of the late 1990's has been replaced by the electric car hype of the late 2000's. This change of perception can be traced to three disparate causes: first, the economic shock from a meteoric rise of the oil price in early 2008; secondly, the emerging promise of fast improvements in cost and performance of batteries; third, the increasing commercial alertness of European electricity companies looking for market expansion. Certainly, the battle for the car of the future is shaped by ambitious intentions and public hypes. But ultimately, the prospects for particular car concepts are a function of comparative technological performance on the one hand and uncertain economic factors on the other hand. The most important economic factors in this battle apart from vehicle costs are the development of world oil prices and fiscal regimes for vehicles and fuels including carbon taxes. The intention of this study is to develop a stylized picture of the battlefield for the car of the future, that captures the essence of competitive forces quantitatively and allows a broad picture of potential outcomes based on key assumptions regarding the combined effects of technological progress (reflected in vehicle costs), fuel price developments (of crude oil, electricity and hydrogen) and fiscal regimes (tax rates on vehicles and fuels including carbon prices). As main indicator of competitive fitness on the battlefield for the car of the future we will use the levelized costs per kilometre of competing vehicle concepts as experienced by car owners.
展开▼
