The Research on Demand Uncertainty Based on Error Analysis

摘要

In this paper a simple econometric model is built by using the generalized difference methods. Taking the sales of some washing machine from a household appliances company as an example, with their downstream actual retail sales as independent variable and the company's demand as the dependent variable, we adopted generalized difference method by fitting the simple econometric model to show the impact from coordination factors of the demand uncertainty. Based on analyzing the error of the model, it is concluded that the company's coordinate uncertainty is mainly from the inaccurate demand forecasts, shortage gaming, quantity discount strategy and promotion time and manners etc. This paper also indicates that demand uncertainty can be reduced through improving forecasts, allocating based on past sales and offering volume-based quantity over a rolling time horizon, and performing off-season sales.