Possibility of Using the Serbian Composite Index of the Economic Activity for Flash Estimates of the Real Growth of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

摘要

The Serbian composite index of the economic activity presents a weighted monthly dynamics of the latter in industry, construction, trade, transport and telecommunication and other services. Based on its trends, significant information about the monthly dynamics of the economic activity is obtained. However, in order to be used to evaluate quarterly GDP, the aspects of the economic activity which are not covered by it due to lack of adequate monthly indicators, should also be included in the calculation. Consequently, this paper describes the methodological basis of the calculation of so-called adjusted quarterly composite index. It represents a particular link between the monthly composite index of the economic activity and the sections not covered by it, but in quarterly periodicity. This connection makes possible the use of the adjusted composite index for flash estimates of the real growth of quarterly GDP 30 days after the end of the referent quarter. This way, by calculating at the same time the adjusted quarterly composite index of the economic activity and the monthly composite index, it is possible to obtain a complete picture of national economy trends.