Reliability of the Quarterly and Annual Estimates of GDP and Gross Domestic Income

摘要

An analysis of the reliability of the current quarterly estimates of real GDP since 1983 shows that they almost always provide the correct indication of the direction of change in U.S. economic activity. About three-fourths of the time, the current quarterly estimates correctly indicate whether the pace of U.S. economic activity is picking up or slowing down and whether it is deviating from its long-term growth trend. More than two-thirds of the time, the current quarterly estimates correctly identify the cyclical turning points in U.S. economic activity, and when they have "missed," it has never been by more than one quarter.