On the market impact of wind power (forecasts) -An overview of the effects of large-scale integration of wind power on the electricity market

摘要

Large-scale integration of wind power, and non-dispatchable renewable generation units in general, impliessubstantial changes in the dynamics of deregulated electricity markets. The varying production capacity of suchplants along with their extremely low marginal costs introduces greater volatility of the prices and increases thedemand for flexible generation units for regulation and frequency control. The paper illustrates the magnitudeand the characteristics of the effects wind power has on the electricity spot prices and on the penalties associatedwith producers’ imbalances when its share in the generation portfolio is substantial. Trough statistical analysisthe relationship between prices and forecasted wind power production is shown to be highly non-linear andto exhibit strong seasonal behavior. Finally, the paper touches upon how the sign of the regulation need, i.e.whether production surpluses or deficits will be penalized, can be modeled accounting for the non-linearitiesimposed on the prices by large-scale integration of wind power in a power system.