Global and Regional 20-year Forecasts for Pilots, Maintenance Personnel and Air Traffic Controllers

摘要

Over the next 20 years, both revenue passenger-kilometres and aircraft movements are expected to undergo sustained growth. As a result, fleets are also forecast to increase significantly. Based on these growth assumptions, it is possible to estimate the number of pilots, aircraft maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers who will be needed to perform the functions required for the operation of an air transport system. A comparison can then be made with numbers of personnel forecast to be trained worldwide and by region. This paper summarizes the main findings of a comprehensive International Civil Aviation (ICAO) study published in February 2011 forecasting the numbers of new personnel to be trained each year globally and by regions, and comparing such numbers with the estimated capacities of the existing training infrastructure, with a view to expose possible shortages or surpluses.