An effective method to discover emerging chance in chance discovery

摘要

In business or in daily life, people are always faced with various chances and challenges. How to discover an emerging chance from some possible chances for decision making is still a problem for human beings to solve. This paper presents an effective method to deal with this kind of problem. Based on domain experts' experiences, the possible factors influencing chances are obtained. And then the weight of each influencing factor is calculated. Finally, the grey relational grades of possible chances are obtained by grey relational model (GRM). We consider that the chance which has the biggest grey relational grade will be most likely to emerge in the future. A case study shows this method is effective to discover emerging chance in the dynamic change environment.