Study on the hologram forecast of product demand in supply chain

摘要

Demand forecasts play a crucial role in modern enterprise management. However, the diversity and uncertainty of the economic environment often make it hard to produce accurate forecasting results, especially when historical data change dramatically and there rise similar or substituting products. This paper discusses how to handle the historical demand data, analyze the market share of similar products, evaluate enterprise's competivity, and make decisions with the Hologram forecasting method. A framework for the method is presented, followed by its implementation process. In later chapters the demand for cars in a car loan company is studied, and compared with the forecasting results of a simple neutral network model.