ESTIMATION AND REPRESENTATION METHOD OF HUMPING-CARS TIME IN THE BREAK UP OPERATION ON MARSHALLING YARD

摘要

The break up operation can be divided into idle course, pushing cars and humping cars. Comparatively speaking, humping cars time is most unsteady among the three parts. Based on the practical statistics form Zhengzhoubei marshalling yard, analyzing the dominate factors which affect the break up operation can make humping cars time as variable and shunting trip as well as the train numbers as independent variable to build multiple linear regression model. The interval of humping cars time can be forecast in this way. The effectiveness of the model and result can be proved by the check of correlation coefficient method. Credibility measure of estimation of technical operation duration is given out based on credibility theory. On considering the fuzziness existing in the technical operation duration, allowable interval of the rational value of the technical operation duration would become a fuzzy allowable interval. The function of credibility distribution can reduce errors of estimation of technical operation duration in order to make expression of humping cars time more reasonable.