APPLICATION AND ESTIMATION OF WHEAT PRODUCTION EMULATION SYSTEM IN HEBEI PROVINCE

摘要

In according with wheat ecophysiological characteristics, the author appliedtechnologies of system engineering method, crop simulation and computer to build wheat developing process cooperative models including growth model, developmental phase models, water balance model and nitrogen balance model etc. with the support of basic data such as variety characteristics, weather data, soil level and cultivation management, then further constructed Wheat Production Emulation System (WPES) with several additional functions such as determining variety characteristic parameters, deciding the planting design, simulating wheat phenology stages and production features, warning of the nitrogen leaching in advance, simulating the water and nitrogen deficit degree and wheat growth three-dimensional display. This system was validated and calibrated through actual experiment for four wheat growing seasons in Hebei province. Predicted yield and biomass were significantly correlated with observed data (R2>0.47), and the Root Mean Square Error were 5.89% and 8.94% of its observed average yield and biomass. The results verified its strong mechanism and prediction performance as well as its universal adaptation.