Simulation of climate scenarios and sensitivity analysis with the bio-physical process model EPIC

摘要

Climate change affects major bio-physical processes in land use management. The aim of this analysis is to simulate regional climate scenarios and to assess the effects of climate change on bio-physical indicators. We have developed statistical models for six weather parameters using daily weather records between 1975 and 2006 from a weather station in the Marchfeld region (Austria). The statistical models are used to estimate weather parameters for the period 2007-2038. We also compared our weather scenarios with climate data from the TYNDALL centre. This comparison indicates some differences namely a smaller temperature increase and a higher precipitation amount in the TYNDALL data. We also use both climate scenario datasets to simulate impacts of climate change on crop yields, soil organic carbon and nitrogen leaching with the bio-physical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). EPIC is sensitive to different weather inputs: lower crop yields have been simulated with TYNDALL data, especially for winter wheat and sunflower. Some small differences appear for soil organic carbon and nitrate leaching.