Safeguards Information from Open Sources

摘要

The recent explosion of open-source information and the availability of advanced tools for collecting,mining, and analyzing such information have enhanced the role of open-source analysis in safeguardsand nonproliferation studies. This paper discusses the role of open-source information in analyzingpotential proliferation pathways, including diversion of declared nuclear material and the potentialdetection of undeclared nuclear activities. We see an evolution of integrating such analysis into on-siteinspections and assistance in prioritizing aspects of the state evaluation process. Open-source analysis isunlikely by itself to provide a definitive detection of clandestine activity. However, it may contribute toidentifying locations, institutions, people, and activities that should be targeted for further investigationand may provide important additional details that add perspective on the relevant technical, industrial,and military capabilities, as well as R&D activities, of a particular entity or group. We discuss why opensourceanalysis has become, and continues to be, a valuable nonproliferation asset, as well as some ofthe limitations and needs for additional capabilities.