Analyse par modélisation des déterminants comportementaux des usagers de la route dans les collisions en Algérie

摘要

The statistics of road collision in Algeria reflect the seriousness of the problem and require sustained efforts from all stakeholders in road prevention in order to reduce the number of collisions and victims. The primary responsibility lies also at the vehicle user. Through the study of the causes of collisions occurred in 2013, it appears that 91,84% of the total recorded are due to the human factor: 26,59% were caused by speeding, 8,25% by dangerous overtakingand 6,39% bynot using crosswalks, in addition to non-compliance with the safety distance and dangerous maneuvers. The remaining rate causes are the vehicle statewith 4,06% and 4,10% is the environment. In this study, we seek to highlight the factors underlying road collisions according to their occurrence area. The main objective is to identify the behavioral factors that explain the occurrence of collisions in Algeria. To do so, we developed a quantitative model expressing the magnitude and gravity of the various explanatory factors in the number of collisions followed by a comparison of their influence in both urban and rural distinct zones. In developing the model, we have the following methodological framework: - A collection of quantitative data, in the national center of prevention and road safety (CNPSR) and exploration of the available data by the application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the explanatory variables used. - Development of an econometric model to determine the influential causes on the number of collisions. Collisions that occurred in urban areas were not influenced by the same variables relative to those that occurred in rural areas. Thus, the influential variables change from one area to another. This diversity is due to two criteria: the nature of the areas where there are specific characteristics of each area including their development and severity in terms of frequency, meaning that the same variable does not have the same influence in both zones.