IMPROVING THE ABILITY TO PREDICT FATAL TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS FROM ECONOMIC INDICES

摘要

Previous research has demonstrated that there is a relationship between economicgrowth and fatal road collisions. For example, Joksch [1] demonstratedthat traffic fatalities were related to the Index of Industrial Production in theUnited States and Wagenaar [2] demonstrated that periods of economic constrictionsas measured by unemployment rates, were related to decreases infatal road collisions. Partyka [3] developed a model to investigate how the numberof people employed, unemployed, and out of the labour force related totraffic fatalities. Explanations provided, but generally not explored, by theseresearchers included decreased discretionary driving in periods of economicconstriction and lower rates of driving among sub groups in the population (i.e.,young males). The purpose of our study was to apply and improve the modelcreated by Partyka to Canadian data over the last three decades. The new regressionmodels were built from recent data, and were refined through the useof rates (instead of raw numbers), subpopulation groupings, and the inclusion oftime as a proxy for road safety initiatives. Our results showed how road safety isrelated to macroeconomics. Furthermore, we investigated how subpopulations(i.e., young males), may be influencing the overall relationship. Our study alsoinvestigated the impact of the current economic situation on Road Safety Vision2010, a CCMTA initiative, and potential impacts of an improving economy overtime.