IMPROVING THE ABILITY TO PREDICT FATAL TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS FROM ECONOMIC INDICES

摘要

Previous research has demonstrated that there is a relationship between economic growth andfatal road collisions. For example, Joksch [1] demonstrated that traffic fatalities were related tothe Index of Industrial Production in the United States and Wagenaar [2] demonstrated thatperiods of economic constrictions as measured by unemployment rates, were related todecreases in fatal road collisions. Partyka [3] developed a model to investigate how the numberof people employed, unemployed, and out of the labour force related to traffic fatalities.Explanations provided, but generally not explored, by these researchers included decreaseddiscretionary driving in periods of economic constriction and lower rates of driving among subgroups in the population (i.e., young males). The purpose of our study was to apply and improvethe model created by Partyka to Canadian data over the last three decades. The newregression models were built from recent data, and were refined through the use of rates(instead of raw numbers), subpopulation groupings, and the inclusion of time as a proxy for roadsafety initiatives. Our results showed how road safety is related to macroeconomics.Furthermore, we investigated how subpopulations (i.e., young males), may be influencing theoverall relationship. Our study also investigated the impact of the current economic situation onRoad Safety Vision 2010, a CCMTA initiative, and potential impacts of an improving economyover time.