Grey Prediction of Corrosion on the First Oil Atmospheric Distillation Unite

摘要

Corrosion is a serious problem on the first atmospheric distillation unit when the plant refines high-acid crude oil from Shengli Oil Field. To measure and predict the corrosion and related factors is significant tasks in refinery. The GM(1,1) model only can predict the sequence of exponential law, scribe the monotonic change event. Took acid value as sample, used the data from the first to 6th month, established GM(2,1) model and Verhulst to predict the data from 7th to 9th. For the GM(2,1) model, the maximum relative error is 11.797%, the mean relative error is 7.2269%, and the mean relative error of prediction is 13.2006%. For the Verhulst model, the maximum relative error is 7.0037%, the mean relative error is 3.1402%, and the mean relative error of prediction is 10.5732%. the conclusion is that the Verhulst model is better than DGM model and can be used for corrosion prediction.