Impact of the 2004 Hurricane Season on the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model

摘要

The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model is one of the first public models entirelyaccessible for scrutiny to the scientific community. The model incorporates the latest state ofthe art techniques in hurricane prediction, and vulnerability modeling based on engineering criteria.Although the model was developed for Florida, its methodology is applicable to any hurricaneprone region. Version 1.5 of the model was developed before any data from the 2004 hurricaneseason was available. When data from this intense hurricane season, which producedsubstantial losses in Florida, became available, it provided the opportunity to validate and recalibratethe loss model against actual claim data. The paper describes the resulting changes in theModel, and how they affected the predicted loss costs in Florida. Scenario analyses illustratethe significance of the model results for the insurance industry and homeowners in the State ofFlorida.