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Study on realized volatility and CVaR forecasts and its applications in Chinese Stock market

机译:实际波动率和CVaR预测及其在中国股票市场中的应用研究

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Value-at-Risk (VaR), as a risk measure, has been widely accepted all over the world. However, VaR is not the best risk measure. VaR is not sub-additive. Moreover, it doesn't indicate the size of the potential loss. CVaR is the most attractive coherent risk measure and has been studied by many authors. In this paper, CVaR calculations are studied. In addition, the issue of volatility forecasting for CVaR calculations by using realized volatility is investigated. Realized volatility is a non- parametric measure of volatility and can be modeled and forecasted with usual time series models. Furthermore, realized volatility is based on high frequency financial data and can fully take advantage of the intraday information. Finally, empirical research is made in Chinese stock market.
机译:风险价值(VaR)作为一种风险衡量方法,已被全世界广泛接受。但是,VaR不是最好的风险衡量方法。 VaR不是次加性的。而且,它没有指出潜在损失的大小。 CVaR是最有吸引力的相干风险度量标准,许多作者对此进行了研究。在本文中,对CVaR计算进行了研究。此外,研究了通过使用实际波动率进行CVaR计算的波动率预测问题。已实现的波动率是波动率的非参数度量,可以使用常规的时间序列模型进行建模和预测。此外,已实现的波动率是基于高频财务数据,可以充分利用日内信息。最后,对中国股票市场进行了实证研究。

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