Assessing Risks through Information Systems Failure Probability Based on the Life Cycle Theory

摘要

Many information system (IS) failures may result from the inadequate and ineffective assessment of project risk. Since the risk of IS development project is full of dynamic variability during the life cycle, consistent evaluation, coordination and avoidance is needed. Moreover, little is known about integrated function of all kinds of risk factors in the course of IS project development. The model of IS development project risk assessment and failure probability during the life cycle has been established,combining the risk, the life cycle theory, dynamic characteristics and IS failure probability. Risk factors in the life cycle are identified and assessed by risk exposure analysis. The definition and measurement of IS failure probability are first presented, in one hand predicting the success of IS project implementation and in the other hand analyzing the integrated influence of risk factors. Finally,risk reducing strategy is introduced based on the assessment result, so as to reduce the high risks being identified and improve the probability of success in IS development.