MEDIUM-LONG TERM LOAD FORCASTING BASED ON IMPROVED GREY MODEL

摘要

Grey forecasting is the method that forecasts the system with uncertain factors through grey theory.This paper presents an improved grey model (GM) algorithm for the medium-long term load forecasting, from which, the optimal parameter is decided by association analysis of historical data.Meanwhile, the method possesses far superior forecast precision through using residual revision and filling innovation.In the article, the authors offer the detailed calculating steps of this method which can be proved that such an algorithm may lead to high performance through experiments conducted on a real power system.