Simulation Uncertainty Quantification and Validation Assessment of a Large Transient Dynamic Simulation

摘要

In order to make a fair comparison between validation tests, where uncertainty inherently exists, and the deterministic simulation, uncertainty must be propagated through the finite element model. Uncertainty in the finite element model has been quantified by first identifying parameters, such as material and interface properties, preload, etc. that were anticipated to have an effect on the energy transmission features of interest. This large list of parameters was then rigorously screened and distributions on remaining parameters were determined from data or assumed. Uncertainty was then propagated through the model via two sampling schemes. Finally, a validation assessment, which accounted for uncertainty in both the test measurements and in the simulation, was made. This paper was approved for unlimited public release on October 21, 2005 LA-UR 05-8068.