Restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions (CO_2) from electric power generation are widely anticipated, yet despite growing concern about climate change, the timing and stringency of future regulations remain deeply uncertain. An aging coal-fired generation fleet now supplies 51% of U.S. demand. As plants age, increasing operating costs combined with increasingly stringent regulation of conventional pollutants will likely drive the replacement, retirement or refurbishment of much of this coal-fired fleet within the next two decades even in the absence of CO_2 regulations. Switching to natural gas fired generation offers the most readily available means to reduce CO_2 emissions, yet conversion to natural gas is inhibited by high and volatile gas prices and expectations of continued price increases and volatility. Beyond natural gas, nuclear and CO_2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies offer carbon-constrained, centralized electricity production options. Although nuclear power and CCS are technologically unrelated, they have important similarities from the perspective of electric-sector decision makers: high capital costs and, under carbon constraints, low operating costs as well as significant uncertainties related to citing, regulation, and public acceptance. However, CCS technologies can be retrofitted to new coal-fired power plants, either advanced pulverized coal or integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), once CO_2 regulations occur.
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