Production Forecasting in a Limited-Data Environment: Evolving the Methodology inthe Yamburgskoe Arctic Gas/Condensate Field, Russia

摘要

Though there are many proven ways of predicting productivityin hydraulically fractured wells in medium-permeability oilreservoirs, there is still no simple, practical productionforecasting methodology for hydraulically propped fracturingstimulations for the gas and gas-condensate wells in theWestern Siberian Arctic sector.The candidate selection process, including productionprediction, is at an infant development stage and isadditionally hampered by the lack of, or ambiguity in, thereservoir and production data.This is particularly true for the Yamburgskoe gascondensate field, where the wells are completed in a series ofmedium- and low-permeability reservoirs. Some wells cannotmaintain stable production rates and have either been shut-inor are on intermittent production. Factors may include lowreservoir quality, reservoir pressure, and specific productionconditions. A reliable methodology for selection of candidatewells for stimulation treatments was clearly needed.This paper describes the comprehensive methodologyderived from integrated analysis of the fracturing treatmentsperformed between 2003 and 2005 in the Yamburgskoe gascondensatefield.The analysis revealed a series of correlations andelaborated an engineering approach that reduced theassumptions in the estimation of hydraulic fracturingefficiency, particularly for the wells that were completed butwere unable to maintain stable production. Although thecertainty of the final, stabilized production rate remains achallenge for the production and stimulation engineer, recentproduction results showed that hydraulic propped fracturingcan bring many wells to economical production.