Investigation of latitudinal and seasonal characteristics of tropical cyclone generation processes using Pelevin criterion

摘要

The three-stage thermodynamical model of tropical cyclone generation is suggested. According to this model the decisive role for tropical cyclone starting plays combination of the three following factors: high ocean surface temperature, high value of air humidity and low wind velocity in the atmospheric layer above water surface. All these parameters can be successfully measured by microwave radiometry methods, satellite microwave scanner data giving the possibility to examine the distribution of these physical parameters over different aquatoria of World Ocean and to follow their alteration within the day. A new complex criterion Ω was developed which we gave the name of Pelevin criterion. It is calculated using the values of ocean surface temperature, water vapor amount in the air layer above water surface and Carioles parameter that depends on the place latitude. The value of the criterion is shown to be proportional to the probability of cyclones generation estimated by frequency of cyclones generation in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans during the 16-year-period. Using the maps of monthly averaged ocean surface temperature and humidity of the adjacent atmospheric air layer in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans the distribution of average values of Pelevin criterion over these aquatoria is calculated. The obtained results give the possibility to explain seasonal and latitudinal peculiarities of tropical cyclones generation.