Understanding and Diagnosing Adversary System Behaviorin 4th Generation Warfare: A Soft Approach to EBO MissionAnalysis

摘要

Effects-based Operations (EBO) is rapidly becoming the centerpiece of Western militarythinking. The concept is based on influencing the behavior of adversary complex adaptivesystems (such as terrorist networks) in dynamic environments. EBO mission analysis is criticalto overall campaign effectiveness and requires planners identify changes (effects) likely toproduce conditions consistent with the desired endstate. This paper proposes a new intellectualframework using a soft systems approach to develop the critical linkage between effects andendstate. The paper explains why Fourth Generation Warfare and adversary complex adaptivesystem behavior may frustrate EBO approaches seeking to determine endstate, arguing thesituation is better approached as a discovery or learning process. The key results are an initialset of changes planners believe will successfully influence behavior toward the desired endstate.These changes serve as input for subsequent, more detailed planning to determine specificactions.