A modelling approach for evaluate the pre-industrial naturalcarrying capacity of human population in Iceland

摘要

A simple approach was used to evaluate the potential human population that thepre-industrial Icelandic environment could sustain. A model was constructed thatsimulated the population size according to potential biological production availablefor livestock. Biological production was determined by the extent of the total potentialvegetation cover based on the Degree-day concept. Fluctuations in the mean annualtemperature cause changes in the potential vegetation cover and as a consequencechange the biological production sustaining livestock and ultimately humanpopulation. The simulation's results indicate that the potential population that theenvironment could sustain during the pre-industrial period fluctuated around 40-80thousand. The results further indicate that the severe land degradation experiencedafter the settlement period had a marginal impact on the population size. The prehistoricalpopulation did however overshoot the natural sustainability on few occasions.