POLICY CHANGES IN THE SWISS ELECTRICITYMARKET: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS ANALYSIS OFLIKELY MARKET RESPONSES

摘要

The Swiss electricity market - as well as the European electricity markets, is now facinga period of fundamental structural changes. Emergent liberalisation is taking place,and nuclear dismantling is being debated. Given this scenario, it is important toevaluate market response to those changes in terms of security of supply and theviability of international exchanges - imports and exports of electricity from and to neighbouring countries.The approach we adopt to analyse various aspects of security of supply in Switzerlanddiffers from the traditional economic methodology which focuses on equilibrium ofoutcomes as opposed to on how the new situation is reached. We use system dynamicssimulation models, which incorporate information feedback and behavioural policies, tostudy scenarios of the transient period currently faced by the Swiss electricity market.