A FORMAL METHOD FOR ANALYZING AND ASSESSING OPERATIONALRISK IN SUPPLY CHAINS

摘要

This paper is aimed at formalizing an objective method to analyze and assessoperational risk in supply chains. The proposed approach consists of exploiting theanalogy among logistic networks and dynamical systems; in particular, it proposes toidentify the risky events characterizing a generic supply chain by studying itsattributed Petri net and the corresponding coverability graph, whereas it suggests to assess the risky events effects by building the logistic network simulation model, experimenting on it and applying ANOVA to analyze the results and, then, define the order of importance among the risky events previously figured out. Finally, the method has been applied to a single-item, 3-stages supply chain to show how it can be practically used.