Quantification of climate policy scenarios for long-termtrends in sustainability in ASTRA

摘要

One aim of this paper is to show the mode of action of the integrated transport-economicenvironmentmodel ASTRA that is based on the System Dynamics Modelling method.Furthermore two policy scenarios - one in which a tax per ton of CO2 emitted by transportwill be introduced and another with a significant increase of crude oil price until 2020 - willbe compared to a reference case. The reference scenario results will be analysed to identifylong-term trends in transport, economy and environment. The scenarios results show theimpact on a sustainable development by an introduction of transport emission pricing bypolicy makers on the one hand and of a stronger increase of crude oil prices based on the factof growing scarcity of oil resources on the other hand.