AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF CALIBRATI CALIBRATION ON IN AIR TRAFFICCONTROL EXPERT JUDGM JUDGMENT ENT

摘要

In contrast to many studies revealing biases in the probabilistic judgments of task-na?ve participants, agrowing body of literature has revealed that over time, professionals are able to gain a reasonably accurateappreciation for the inherent uncertainty that exists in their work environments. The present study assessedhow well experienced (working) air traffic controllers are able to predict the probability of the loss ofseparation between a pair of converging aircraft. Sixteen controllers expressed probabilistically whether ornot the depicted pair of aircraft would lose separation. The actual probability of conflict was manipulatedby varying the time differential between when each pair of aircraft would reach the point of potentialconflict, coupled with uncertainty due to wind perturbations. Results revealed that in instances whereperceptual information was available to distinguish between conflicts and non-conflicts, the differencebetween the actual conflict probability and the mean of the controllers' judged probabilities of conflict wasminimal, highlighting the high calibration level of these domain experts at an aggregate level.