Validation and Demonstration of the Prescott Spatial Growth Model in the Atlanta, Georgia Region

摘要

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. Viable future growth scenarios are essential to effectively plan for potential impacts on air and water resources among others. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (PSGIVI) is a tool that can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules, each of which are weighted depending on growth assumptions. The PSGM will be described, including data inputs, how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. 'Blind' and 'guided' forecasts for the Atlanta region were performed for the 1980-200S period to evaluate the performance of the model primarily in the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth. Quantitative comparisons of both the blind and guided forecasts with actual land use on a county basis were used in model assessment. Strong relationships were found between existing land use and the calibrated forecast. Also, model output for the rapidly urbanizing 13-county Atlanta region for 2010, 2020, and 2030 will be discussed and the use of this information for environmental assessment illustrated.