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Enhancing the lift under budget constraints

机译:在预算约束下提升电梯

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摘要

A lift curve, with the true positive rate on the y-axis and the customer pull (or contact) rate on the x-axis, is often used to depict the model performance in many data mining applications, especially in the area of customer relationship management (CRM). Typically, these applications concern only the model accuracy at a relatively small pull or contact/intervention rate of the whole customer base, which is predetermined by a budget constraint for the project, e.g., how many customers can be contacted every month. In this paper, we address the important problem of enhancing the lift (true positive rate) at a specified pull rate. We propose two distinct algorithms, which are applicable to different scenarios. In particular, when the binary class label of the training set is extracted from a continuous variable, we can optimize a training objective which takes into account the specified pull rate rather than the class prior, based on the often ignored continuous variable. In those cases where onlythe binary class label is available during training, we propose a constrained optimization algorithm to maximize the true positive rate related to a specific decision threshold at which the specified pull rate is achieved. We applied both algorithms to our projects of predicting defection (decline in account value) of mutual fund accounts for two major U.S. mutual fund companies and achieved substantial enhancement of the lift at the specified pull rate.
机译:提升曲线(在y轴上为真正率,在x轴上为客户拉动(或接触)率)通常用于描述许多数据挖掘应用程序中模型的性能,尤其是在客户关系领域管理(CRM)。通常,这些应用仅涉及整个客户群相对较小的拉动或接触/干预率下的模型准确性,这由项目的预算约束预先确定,例如,每月可以联系多少客户。在本文中,我们解决了重要的问题,即以指定的拉动速度提高升力(真实正向速度)。我们提出了两种不同的算法,它们适用于不同的场景。特别是,当从连续变量中提取训练集的二进制类别标签时,我们可以基于经常被忽略的连续变量来优化训练目标,该目标考虑指定的拉速而不是先前的类别。在训练过程中只有二元类别标签可用的情况下,我们提出了一种约束优化算法,以最大化与达到指定拉速的特定决策阈值相关的真实阳性率。我们将这两种算法应用于我们预测美国两家主要共同基金公司共同基金账户的背叛(账户价值下降)的项目,并在指定的提款率下大幅提升了提价率。

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