Global demand of the clean energy technology under developing climate policy

摘要

The proposal of the European Union to limit the global average temperature rise to 2 °C would require stabilisation of the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO_2) below the 450 ppm level. This paper gives a preliminary analysis of the impacts of the stabilisation of CO_2 concentrations to 450 ppm on the global and regional energy systems using the new generation energy system model Global TIMES. The model consists of 15 world regions, between which trading of energy commodities and carbon permits can take place. Each region of the model includes about 1500 existing and new technologies. The baseline demand projections are based on basic socio-economic drivers, such as regional GDP and population. The assumed baseline is between IPCC A1 and B2 Marker scenarios and close to the IEA WEO 2004 Reference scenario. The results are very preliminary and no definite conclusions can be drawn. The preliminary results suggest that stabilisation of CO_2 emissions at the 450 ppm level would change the world's energy systems by a large penetration of renewables and nuclear energy. Fossil fuels would still be used as a primary energy source, but after the second half of the 21 st century most of the electricity generation plants would be equipped with carbon capture and storage.