CAN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGERS FORECAST WITH THE PMI?

摘要

This paper compares cycles for the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), composed by theInstitute for Supply Management, Inc.? (ISM), using an ARIMA and cyclic model. The abilityto forecast PMI cycles is important to business and policy makers because it is considered aleading indicator of the general business cycle. While the ARIMA model is superior atforecasting specific periods in the short term, the cycle model appears to be superior atforecasting cycle turns in the long run. Confidence intervals are computed for the derivative ofthe cycle model to determine the location of peaks and floors.