FORECASTING MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHY LIFECYCLES:A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF SIX SIGMA AND TQM

摘要

Six Sigma has been implemented widely, reportedly generating billions of dollars in costsavings. Despite claims to the contrary, the basic tenets of Six Sigma appear analogous to TotalQuality Management (TQM), which was labeled by many as a management fad. By looking atthe number of articles published by year, the degree of similarity between the two managementphilosophies was measured using the Kolmogorov Goodness-of-Fit test. This study foundsignificant similarity between the distributions of TQM and Six Sigma article counts, allowingthe use of Analogy Forecasting to estimate Six Sigma's remaining life cycle. Our results showthat Six Sigma has about seven years left in its lifecycle.