Addressing Uncertainty in the Evaluation of MarketTransformation Activities

摘要

This paper describes the methodology and results of an evaluation of the markettransformation efforts of the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance. The analysis presented herefocuses on the methods used to bound the savings estimates attributed to the Alliance portfolio.The approach involved review of evaluation reports and market assessments conducted for about30 programs over the past six years. From this review, a sample of programs was selected foranalysis that was representative of Alliance activities across markets. For each program, thevariables that influenced energy impacts were examined to determine which assumptions werepivotal drivers of savings claims. These pivot assumptions fall into one of two categories: fieldperformance of the technology or number of units attributable to program activities.To dimension uncertainty surrounding pivot assumptions, alternative hypothesesregarding each assumption's value were sought from market actors in the region through aninterview process. Combined with current literature on savings attributed to specifictechnologies, these alternative hypotheses helped establish a range for each variable(e.g., displaced watts for compact fluorescent lighting). A distribution was established for eachpivot assumption, and a simulation analysis was conducted using 5,000 random draws from eachdistribution. Each draw was run through a cost-effectiveness model to produce a distribution forenergy savings and a benefit/cost ratio attributable to each program. This process was completedfor each program reviewed, and the results were summed to assess the overall energy impactsand levelized costs of the savings attributable to the Alliance portfolio.